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Compensatory Pick Projection: One 7th at Best.

Starting out, I have compared our signings vs. FA losses on the basis of statistical output. Games and games started are included.

This is what we gained and lost last off-season to free agency:


LOSSES:

QB J.T. O'Sullivan - Signed with Bengals - 3 games (0 starts), 4/11 for 40 yards, QB rating of 47.5, 3 rushes for 12 yards. 2 Fumbles Lost.

TE Sean Ryan - Signed with Chiefs - 10 games (8 starts), 14 catches for 135 yards, 2 TDs.

TE Billy Bajema - Signed with Rams - 16 games (5 starts), 8 catches for 94 yards.

DT Ronald Fields - Signed with Broncos - 16 games (16 starts), 37 tackles.

CB Donald Strickland - Signed with Jets - 9 games (2 starts), 26 tackles, 2 Passes Defensed, 2 sacks, 1 FF.

WR Bryant Johnson - Signed by Lions - 16 games (16 starts), 35 catches for 417 yards, 3 TDs.


GAINS:

FB Moran Norris - 16 games (7 starts), 14 rushes for 41 yards and 1 TD, 7 receptions for 31 yards, 1 fumble (which wasn't lost).

WR Brandon Jones - 8 games (0 starts), 1 catch for 18 yards, 9 punt returns for 26 yards.

DE Demetric Evans - 14 games (0 starts) 12 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 pass defensed.

Players that don't count against us are Pashos and Bly because they were released by their teams rather than left unsigned.

I can't recall whether or not the contracts of the players we've signed count against us, but based on just a statistical comparison, the players we acquired appear to have done less than those we lost. However, all in all, just looking at every player (whether gained or lost), none of them stand out as being a significant contributor really. I could see the 49ers getting nothing, but considering the raw stats, we may get one 7th rounder.
I always thought stats didn't matter. The contracts they signed matters.
Originally posted by kronik:
I always thought stats didn't matter. The contracts they signed matters.

It's a balance of both.

According to my reasoning, Brandon Jones and Moran Norris should nullify Bryant Johnson and Ronald Fields due to contract size. Evans should nullify the TEs. And OTC is right, a 7th, maybe 6th is all we should really expect.
One pick is better than none
Originally posted by tohara3:
One pick is better than none

This is true. Gives a chance to take a nice developmental guy or a pure specialist (if we wait that long, like a pure KR/PR or something or Blocking TE since all we've got is Vern and D-Walk right now).
Three starters on other clubs versus Moran Norris for us? Has to be more than just one pick headed our way.

Fields was a heavier contributor for Denver's defense.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Starting out, I have compared our signings vs. FA losses on the basis of statistical output. Games and games started are included.

This is what we gained and lost last off-season to free agency:


LOSSES:

QB J.T. O'Sullivan - Signed with Bengals - 3 games (0 starts), 4/11 for 40 yards, QB rating of 47.5, 3 rushes for 12 yards. 2 Fumbles Lost.

TE Sean Ryan - Signed with Chiefs - 10 games (8 starts), 14 catches for 135 yards, 2 TDs.

TE Billy Bajema - Signed with Rams - 16 games (5 starts), 8 catches for 94 yards.

DT Ronald Fields - Signed with Broncos - 16 games (16 starts), 37 tackles.

CB Donald Strickland - Signed with Jets - 9 games (2 starts), 26 tackles, 2 Passes Defensed, 2 sacks, 1 FF.

WR Bryant Johnson - Signed by Lions - 16 games (16 starts), 35 catches for 417 yards, 3 TDs.


GAINS:

FB Moran Norris - 16 games (7 starts), 14 rushes for 41 yards and 1 TD, 7 receptions for 31 yards, 1 fumble (which wasn't lost).

WR Brandon Jones - 8 games (0 starts), 1 catch for 18 yards, 9 punt returns for 26 yards.

DE Demetric Evans - 14 games (0 starts) 12 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 pass defensed.

Players that don't count against us are Pashos and Bly because they were released by their teams rather than left unsigned.

I can't recall whether or not the contracts of the players we've signed count against us, but based on just a statistical comparison, the players we acquired appear to have done less than those we lost. However, all in all, just looking at every player (whether gained or lost), none of them stand out as being a significant contributor really. I could see the 49ers getting nothing, but considering the raw stats, we may get one 7th rounder.

Salary is a factor. Considering the lack of standout performances by any player gained or loss. Bryant Johnson and Fields are the only guys that even qualify for compensation for players lost. Based on their salary and playing time. With Barndon Jones being the only guy worthy of compensation as far as Players gained.

Only 3 players that really come into play is...


Gained
Brandon Jones- 5yrs/16.5 million (3.3mill/yr) 8 games played/0 started


Lost
Bryant Johnson- 3yrs/9million (3mill/yr) 16 games/16 started
Ron Fields- 2yrs/5million (2.5mill/yr) 16 games/16started

Jones and Johnson's salary are in the 6th round range. With Ron Fields on the borderline of the 6th and 7th. But that doesn't factor in Jones' lack of playing time.

So we could get a 6th out of this if Fields is right on the cutoff point for the 6th round bracket. Or if Jones' lack of playing time knocks him into the 7th.

But We will only get one pick.
With the 7th round compensatory pick, the Niners select:

Brandon James RB Florida 5'7" 186 4.42