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Why not draft a RB in the First Round???

Originally posted by kronik:
Originally posted by GoFD74:
Originally posted by kronik:
Originally posted by GoFD74:
Originally posted by kronik:
Originally posted by GoFD74:
Originally posted by tap11:
Originally posted by kronik:
Why can't we use a 6th round pick on Trindin Holliday to solve the kick return issues? Why do we have to use a 1st? It's not like OL is our only hole. We also need some speed in our secondary and if you look at the NFL as a whole, great CB's are takened VERY EARLY in the drafts. It's very rare for a good CB to be selected in later rounds. You can get away with it if you run a tampa 2 style defense where your CB's don't need to have great speed but even those teams use high picks for their CB's (Aquib Tailb).

Amen brother. I really wish the lunacy of the "draft Spiller" mantra would disappear. I would love to get Holliday with a late pick, but drafting a rb in the first is poor value, and unrealistic (the brass doesn't seem interested, thank God).

That's what plenty of Titans fans thought when they drafted Chris Johnson, or when the Cowboys selected Felix Jones even though they already had a proven RB (Barber). You're right, you can typically get good RB value later in the draft....but you can't always get a RB that runs a 4.30, that also has the ability to catch passes out of the backfield, play in the slot and return kicks/punts. In other words, there's a reason why Spiller grades out as a 1st round back. He can do a lot of things that most backs can't, plus he's a high character guy.

Now, if all you care about is the 2010 needs, then sure...just blindly draft accordingly. But you don't know what will happen once the season starts...what if Frank gets hurt and you're stuck with Coffee to carry the load, or what if Spiller and Gore form a tandem that leads the league in rushing (which allows Alex to throw less), or what if Spiller becomes the next special teams star of the NFL????

I'm not saying we absolutely have to draft Spiller...I'm just saying, whoever does will not regret it (unlike the other 23 teams that passed on Chris Johnson). There are typically only a handful of playmakers like Spiller in every draft, and teams are learning the hard way that you'd better take them when you have the chance.

So IMO, there's nothing wrong with taking a RT and Spiller with our two 1st rounders. Both picks would have an impact far beyond just the 2010 season.

I think the pick that had the Titans fans scratching their head was the pick of Chris Henry with the 2nd round the previous year. He was in no way a 2nd round pick and has proven to be a terrible pick. As for CJ, I doubt many Titans fans didn't like that pick. At that time, the Titans didn't have as many glaring holes as we do now. They could afford to take BPA. They've been to the playoffs many times recently and could afford to use a late 1st rounder on a playmaker. Can we afford to use the 13th or 16/17th pick overall? PS: We haven't been to the playoffs in a while.


Here are my thoughts of drafting Spiller:

First, Let's see if Spiller runs a 4.3 as you say. Not at a school workout or anything, but at the same track as others - The combine.

Second, you already label Coffee a bust after 1 year (a handful of carries)? As if he can't improve. He's already done? I don't know the answer to this, and neither does anyone else.

Third, I don't mind drafting Spiller. But if we do, I would want to trade Gore for a 2nd or 3rd while he still has good value.

Fourth, we also have problems with our secondary, particularly keeping up with fast WR's. You tell me how many fast pro bowl caliber secondary players are drafted after the 1st round.

Fifth, If we keep Gore, I'd like to target Jahvid Best in the 2nd if possible. If he's gone, then Holliday in the 6th round.

I would argue that we really don't have as many needs as you think. Obviously our biggest need is at RT, but I can see a scenario where we use one of the 1st rounders to address that, then take Spiller with the other one. I don't think you need to trade Gore away just yet...having two strong backs isn't new in the NFL.

I never said Coffee was a bust. You just made that up. He has a different skill-set than Spiller (they're actually complimentary in many ways), but I wouldn't be confident in just having Coffee carry the load (which is actually what I said...not that he was a bust) if Gore went down. I would prefer a 3-back situation, with an eye towards the future.

There aren't many fast CBs in this draft. There's Joe Haden who will likely be gone by the time we pick, Patrick Robinson who is considered a late 1st rounder, but who only has 1 pick in the last two years, and then there's Kyle Wilson who's considered a 2nd rounder. Are you saying you want to use that second 1st rounder on Patrick Robinson?

I don't mind targeting Best if he's still in the 2nd...I already said that we don't absolutely have to draft Spiller. I'm just making the case (not just for this year, but for the future) for why it's silly for us to just think of our needs based on he 2010 season. We should be thinking about both (next year AND the future).

I agree that we can use a speed guy both on offense and defense. I'm just not so sure we HAVE to use a 1st round pick for it. I see a lot of speed in this year's draft. You listed a bunch of speed freaks in another thread u posted. Those guys can be had in later rounds. Players like Knox, Cribbs, Garcon have been selected in later rounds.

To be honest, my favorite player in the draft is Iupati. U can see why I rather pass on Spiller. Obviously, we need to use 1 of the picks on an RT. I want to use the other one for Iupati. I honestly think Iupati will be as good or great as Larry Allen. Did you see how he swatted Mauluga like a bug when he tried to blitz up the middle?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWdvfRhTruw

Dude, I'd be totally fine if we used our two 1st rounders on Iupati and the best RT available...so long as we grabbed someone like Best in the 2nd. I just think we have to address both of those needs and not just the o-line. I know people want to focus almost exclusively on the line as the biggest culprit, but there's more going on than just bad line play.

These are my scenarios I'd be happy with:

1A Spiller (RB)
1B Iupati (G)
2 Jason Fox/Charles Brown (RT)
3. Kyle Wilson CB

or

1A Iupati (G)
1B Williams/Bulaga (RT)
2 Best (RB)
3. Kyle Wilson (CB)

PS: I think Wilson will be available in the 3rd due to his poor tackling. All this is assuming Haden is gone before pick 13. If he's there, we gotta get him.

I'd be able to die a happy man with either of those scenarios!!!
Many were high on Spiller last year and wanted to draft him if he declared before CJ had this great season.

We have Frank Gore, we don't need another back. Well, we had Frank Gore this year....except for those 3 games he missed due to injury, 3 games that if won would of meant a playoff appearence, but anyhoo.

Our OL can't block, why get a speed back. Well, IMO a speed back can make up for a lack of good blocking by beating both linemen to the edge and turning it up.

Spiller can play slot receiver. I repeat, Spiller can play the slot. All this "only 10 touches a game" stuff is pure speculation. Punt return, Kick return, Slot in spread formation, 3rd down back on passing downs, 2 back sets with Gore. Come on, if Spiller is as good as advertised, you can't tell me the 49ers won't find a was to get him on the field.

And most important, less throwing for Smith
Reason to draft Spiller with 1st pick if available:

2009 Season Stats

Gore 229carries 1120 yards 4.9avg Long:80yd td
Coffee 83carries 226 yards 2.7avg Long:17yd
Robinson 2carries 3 yards .7avg Long: 4yd

Almost half the ypc. With the SAME offensive line.

If Gore goes down with an injury early, which gets more likely with each passing year, the season is OVER. Nobody will respect the run. Do you want to have that risk? Gore is our most talented offensive player.

Forget KR/PR. The 49ers NEED a talented backup RB to split carries with Gore. The return duties just happen to fill a huge need as well, that might net us an extra 50 return yards a game.

THIS.
Originally posted by TX9R:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by GORO:
I watched highlights on Spiller on youtube, and he reminds me of Reggie Bush. With that said this could be good to help make this conservative offense more productive. The question is whether Gore would be willing to share the load.

Seeing how we're not a running team. In fact 3rd least in the league. So by sharing the load you mean what 12 carries for Gore and 8 for Spiller. 14/6


Yea that seems worth it.

Yup. I wonder how high people would have been on Spiller before Johnson's monster year and he was being compared more to Bush.

Most of us were already talking about Spiller last season before he decided to return to Clemson. The fact that he was able to return kicks/punts, run the ball with a bad o-line, and played in the slot got a lot of us intrigued.
Originally posted by kronik:
Originally posted by GoFD74:
Originally posted by kronik:
Originally posted by GoFD74:
Originally posted by kronik:
Originally posted by GoFD74:
Originally posted by tap11:
Originally posted by kronik:
Why can't we use a 6th round pick on Trindin Holliday to solve the kick return issues? Why do we have to use a 1st? It's not like OL is our only hole. We also need some speed in our secondary and if you look at the NFL as a whole, great CB's are takened VERY EARLY in the drafts. It's very rare for a good CB to be selected in later rounds. You can get away with it if you run a tampa 2 style defense where your CB's don't need to have great speed but even those teams use high picks for their CB's (Aquib Tailb).

Amen brother. I really wish the lunacy of the "draft Spiller" mantra would disappear. I would love to get Holliday with a late pick, but drafting a rb in the first is poor value, and unrealistic (the brass doesn't seem interested, thank God).

That's what plenty of Titans fans thought when they drafted Chris Johnson, or when the Cowboys selected Felix Jones even though they already had a proven RB (Barber). You're right, you can typically get good RB value later in the draft....but you can't always get a RB that runs a 4.30, that also has the ability to catch passes out of the backfield, play in the slot and return kicks/punts. In other words, there's a reason why Spiller grades out as a 1st round back. He can do a lot of things that most backs can't, plus he's a high character guy.

Now, if all you care about is the 2010 needs, then sure...just blindly draft accordingly. But you don't know what will happen once the season starts...what if Frank gets hurt and you're stuck with Coffee to carry the load, or what if Spiller and Gore form a tandem that leads the league in rushing (which allows Alex to throw less), or what if Spiller becomes the next special teams star of the NFL????

I'm not saying we absolutely have to draft Spiller...I'm just saying, whoever does will not regret it (unlike the other 23 teams that passed on Chris Johnson). There are typically only a handful of playmakers like Spiller in every draft, and teams are learning the hard way that you'd better take them when you have the chance.

So IMO, there's nothing wrong with taking a RT and Spiller with our two 1st rounders. Both picks would have an impact far beyond just the 2010 season.

I think the pick that had the Titans fans scratching their head was the pick of Chris Henry with the 2nd round the previous year. He was in no way a 2nd round pick and has proven to be a terrible pick. As for CJ, I doubt many Titans fans didn't like that pick. At that time, the Titans didn't have as many glaring holes as we do now. They could afford to take BPA. They've been to the playoffs many times recently and could afford to use a late 1st rounder on a playmaker. Can we afford to use the 13th or 16/17th pick overall? PS: We haven't been to the playoffs in a while.


Here are my thoughts of drafting Spiller:

First, Let's see if Spiller runs a 4.3 as you say. Not at a school workout or anything, but at the same track as others - The combine.

Second, you already label Coffee a bust after 1 year (a handful of carries)? As if he can't improve. He's already done? I don't know the answer to this, and neither does anyone else.

Third, I don't mind drafting Spiller. But if we do, I would want to trade Gore for a 2nd or 3rd while he still has good value.

Fourth, we also have problems with our secondary, particularly keeping up with fast WR's. You tell me how many fast pro bowl caliber secondary players are drafted after the 1st round.

Fifth, If we keep Gore, I'd like to target Jahvid Best in the 2nd if possible. If he's gone, then Holliday in the 6th round.

I would argue that we really don't have as many needs as you think. Obviously our biggest need is at RT, but I can see a scenario where we use one of the 1st rounders to address that, then take Spiller with the other one. I don't think you need to trade Gore away just yet...having two strong backs isn't new in the NFL.

I never said Coffee was a bust. You just made that up. He has a different skill-set than Spiller (they're actually complimentary in many ways), but I wouldn't be confident in just having Coffee carry the load (which is actually what I said...not that he was a bust) if Gore went down. I would prefer a 3-back situation, with an eye towards the future.

There aren't many fast CBs in this draft. There's Joe Haden who will likely be gone by the time we pick, Patrick Robinson who is considered a late 1st rounder, but who only has 1 pick in the last two years, and then there's Kyle Wilson who's considered a 2nd rounder. Are you saying you want to use that second 1st rounder on Patrick Robinson?

I don't mind targeting Best if he's still in the 2nd...I already said that we don't absolutely have to draft Spiller. I'm just making the case (not just for this year, but for the future) for why it's silly for us to just think of our needs based on he 2010 season. We should be thinking about both (next year AND the future).

I agree that we can use a speed guy both on offense and defense. I'm just not so sure we HAVE to use a 1st round pick for it. I see a lot of speed in this year's draft. You listed a bunch of speed freaks in another thread u posted. Those guys can be had in later rounds. Players like Knox, Cribbs, Garcon have been selected in later rounds.

To be honest, my favorite player in the draft is Iupati. U can see why I rather pass on Spiller. Obviously, we need to use 1 of the picks on an RT. I want to use the other one for Iupati. I honestly think Iupati will be as good or great as Larry Allen. Did you see how he swatted Mauluga like a bug when he tried to blitz up the middle?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWdvfRhTruw

Dude, I'd be totally fine if we used our two 1st rounders on Iupati and the best RT available...so long as we grabbed someone like Best in the 2nd. I just think we have to address both of those needs and not just the o-line. I know people want to focus almost exclusively on the line as the biggest culprit, but there's more going on than just bad line play.

These are my scenarios I'd be happy with:

1A Spiller (RB)
1B Iupati (G)
2 Jason Fox/Charles Brown (RT)
3. Kyle Wilson CB

or

1A Iupati (G)
1B Williams/Bulaga (RT)
2 Best (RB)
3. Kyle Wilson (CB)

PS: I think Wilson will be available in the 3rd due to his poor tackling. All this is assuming Haden is gone before pick 13. If he's there, we gotta get him.


I would be happy with either of these.
  • mayo49
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 21,093
Any combination that includes Iupati I'm for.
  • krizay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 14,925
Originally posted by domesik:
Many were high on Spiller last year and wanted to draft him if he declared before CJ had this great season.

We have Frank Gore, we don't need another back. Well, we had Frank Gore this year....except for those 3 games he missed due to injury, 3 games that if won would of meant a playoff appearence, but anyhoo.

Our OL can't block, why get a speed back. Well, IMO a speed back can make up for a lack of good blocking by beating both linemen to the edge and turning it up.

Spiller can play slot receiver. I repeat, Spiller can play the slot. All this "only 10 touches a game" stuff is pure speculation. Punt return, Kick return, Slot in spread formation, 3rd down back on passing downs, 2 back sets with Gore. Come on, if Spiller is as good as advertised, you can't tell me the 49ers won't find a was to get him on the field.

And most important, less throwing for Smith

Quote:
Well, IMO a speed back can make up for a lack of good blocking by beating both linemen to the edge and turning it up
Quote:

Spiller can play slot receiver. I repeat, Spiller can play the slot.

and that's not speculation?

From an offensive standpoint. You seriously see him getting more than 10 touches a game with Frank healthy?
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by domesik:
Many were high on Spiller last year and wanted to draft him if he declared before CJ had this great season.

We have Frank Gore, we don't need another back. Well, we had Frank Gore this year....except for those 3 games he missed due to injury, 3 games that if won would of meant a playoff appearence, but anyhoo.

Our OL can't block, why get a speed back. Well, IMO a speed back can make up for a lack of good blocking by beating both linemen to the edge and turning it up.

Spiller can play slot receiver. I repeat, Spiller can play the slot. All this "only 10 touches a game" stuff is pure speculation. Punt return, Kick return, Slot in spread formation, 3rd down back on passing downs, 2 back sets with Gore. Come on, if Spiller is as good as advertised, you can't tell me the 49ers won't find a was to get him on the field.

And most important, less throwing for Smith

Quote:
Well, IMO a speed back can make up for a lack of good blocking by beating both linemen to the edge and turning it up
Quote:

Spiller can play slot receiver. I repeat, Spiller can play the slot.

and that's not speculation?

From an offensive standpoint. You seriously see him getting more than 10 touches a game with Frank healthy?

krizay - I've seen Spiller play the slot quite often. He gets anywhere from 3-10 snaps in the slot alone every game.
Originally posted by mayo63:
Any combination that includes Iupati I'm for.

This. Whether it be Anthony Davis, CJ Spiller, or Joe Haden, as long as Iupati is one of the picks, I'll be happy.

As long as it's not Mays.
[ Edited by SF69ers on Jan 5, 2010 at 3:32 PM ]
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by domesik:
Many were high on Spiller last year and wanted to draft him if he declared before CJ had this great season.

We have Frank Gore, we don't need another back. Well, we had Frank Gore this year....except for those 3 games he missed due to injury, 3 games that if won would of meant a playoff appearence, but anyhoo.

Our OL can't block, why get a speed back. Well, IMO a speed back can make up for a lack of good blocking by beating both linemen to the edge and turning it up.

Spiller can play slot receiver. I repeat, Spiller can play the slot. All this "only 10 touches a game" stuff is pure speculation. Punt return, Kick return, Slot in spread formation, 3rd down back on passing downs, 2 back sets with Gore. Come on, if Spiller is as good as advertised, you can't tell me the 49ers won't find a was to get him on the field.

And most important, less throwing for Smith

Quote:
Well, IMO a speed back can make up for a lack of good blocking by beating both linemen to the edge and turning it up
Quote:

Spiller can play slot receiver. I repeat, Spiller can play the slot.

and that's not speculation?

From an offensive standpoint. You seriously see him getting more than 10 touches a game with Frank healthy?

Like GOFD said, Spiller plays the slot in each game he plays.

I don't know league averages so I'm just speculating on how much a team punts and kicks a game....

1 KR at the beginning or at halftime of the game, 3 or so during the game, maybe more = 4 touchs KR

The 49ers D is pretty good, lets say 6 punts = 6 touches PT's

3rd down back/2back sets = 4-5 touches

Slot WR = 4 targets / 2 catches = 2 touches

On a low end estimation that is 16-17 touches right there and I think Spiller is the type of player that could be a threat on ANY of those touches.
In order for a team to remain competitive, I believe they should draft a WR, a RB and a CB every year in the draft. Also a QB every other year. Those are the guys that make or break a team. Given the uncertainty of this game, and the challenge of player evaluation, you can never be too deep in those positions. They are also good trade bait if you wind up with a surplus.

As we all know, running backs have the shortest careers in the league due to injury. Gore is already past the average. I don't know that the 49ers can afford to use one of the first two picks this year on a RB given the need for an OT, a speed receiver/KR/PR and a fast CB. However, if they can solve one of those needs in FA (not very likely) and another with their own first round pick, it the Carolina pick comes up, and there is a value pick on the board, I wouldn't be too upset if they made it a RB.
  • dman
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 7,453
Its not even about position, its about what the player actually does on the field.

I dont think we need to take just any RB but we should take a look at Spiller because he does things on the field that guys on our team can't do.
Originally posted by dman:
Its not even about position, its about what the player actually does on the field.

I dont think we need to take just any RB but we should take a look at Spiller because he does things on the field that guys on our team can't do.

THIS.

PERFECT.

I think this pretty much sums up the pro Spiller argument.
  • krizay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 14,925
Originally posted by domesik:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by domesik:
Many were high on Spiller last year and wanted to draft him if he declared before CJ had this great season.

We have Frank Gore, we don't need another back. Well, we had Frank Gore this year....except for those 3 games he missed due to injury, 3 games that if won would of meant a playoff appearence, but anyhoo.

Our OL can't block, why get a speed back. Well, IMO a speed back can make up for a lack of good blocking by beating both linemen to the edge and turning it up.

Spiller can play slot receiver. I repeat, Spiller can play the slot. All this "only 10 touches a game" stuff is pure speculation. Punt return, Kick return, Slot in spread formation, 3rd down back on passing downs, 2 back sets with Gore. Come on, if Spiller is as good as advertised, you can't tell me the 49ers won't find a was to get him on the field.

And most important, less throwing for Smith

Quote:
Well, IMO a speed back can make up for a lack of good blocking by beating both linemen to the edge and turning it up
Quote:

Spiller can play slot receiver. I repeat, Spiller can play the slot.

and that's not speculation?

From an offensive standpoint. You seriously see him getting more than 10 touches a game with Frank healthy?

Like GOFD said, Spiller plays the slot in each game he plays.

I don't know league averages so I'm just speculating on how much a team punts and kicks a game....

1 KR at the beginning or at halftime of the game, 3 or so during the game, maybe more = 4 touchs KR

The 49ers D is pretty good, lets say 6 punts = 6 touches PT's

3rd down back/2back sets = 4-5 touches

Slot WR = 4 targets / 2 catches = 2 touches

On a low end estimation that is 16-17 touches right there and I think Spiller is the type of player that could be a threat on ANY of those touches.
  • dman
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 7,453
Originally posted by domesik:
Originally posted by dman:
Its not even about position, its about what the player actually does on the field.

I dont think we need to take just any RB but we should take a look at Spiller because he does things on the field that guys on our team can't do.

THIS.

PERFECT.

I think this pretty much sums up the pro Spiller argument.



Thanks, I just get sick of people talking about positions all the time like its fantasy football. If the guy fills a role that we need filled it doesn't matter what position he plays.