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Week 17 NFL Draft Scenarios (and who to root for)

Looks like we are picking at 13 or 14 with the niners pick. If the titans loose, we will pick at #14, else we will pick at #13 because we have the weakest strength of schedule off all the teams that are 8-8 or could be 8-8

There are 12 teams definitly picking ahead of us :

1-Rams 1-15
2-Detroit 2-14
3-Tampa 3-13
4-KC 3-12 (will be 3-13 or 4-12)
5-Skins 4-11 (will be 4-12 or 5-11)
6-Seahawks 5-10 (will be 5-11 or 6-10)
7-Oakland 5-10 (will be 5-11 or 6-10)
8-Cleveland 5-11
9-Buffalo 6-10
10-Miami 7-9
11-Bears 7-9
12-Jax 7-9

Only the titans can get to 7-9 with a loss today. With that loss they would pick ahead of us.

There are 3 teams at 8-8 right now :

Giants
Panthers
49ers

There could be 4 more teams at 8-8:

Jets 8-7
Ravens 8-7
Titans 7-8
Denver 8-7

So at worst ( i don't know the strength of schedule for all those teams), the panthers pick could be at #19).
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Below is a "who to root for guide for week 17 with the odds:

Game // Who to Root for // Odds
SF @ STL // Go Niners…can't lose to the Rams, no matter what // SF Favored by 7
NE @ HOU // Go Texans! A Win Bumps them to 9-7 // NE Favored by 8
ATL @ TB // Go Falcons! A Win Bumps them to 9-7 // Pick 'em
NO @ CAR // Go Saints, for obvious reasons // Off
PIT @ MIA // Go Fins! A MIA win puts them at 8-8. CAR and SF pick ahead // Steelers Favored by 3
JAC @ CLE // Go Jags! They'll finish at 8-8. 49ers pick ahead of an 8-8 JAX // Jags favored by 3
NYG @ MIN // Go GIANTS! 49ers and Carolina pick ahead of an 8-8 Giants team // Vikes favored by 8 1/2
IND @ BUF // Go Colts! We played IND and CAR played BUF, but CAR needs help reducing their SOS // Indy favored by 7
CHI @ DET // Go Bears! -- the outcome does not affect our SOS, but if we lose to STL, we pick ahead // Bears by 3
WAS @ SD // Go Bolts! Carolina played WAS, will decrease CAR SOS // Bolts by 7
TEN @ SEA // Go Titans! Puts them at 8-8, behind SF, but ahead of CAR // Titans by 5
BAL @ OAK // Go Ravens! Puts them at 9-7, behind SF and CAR // Baltimore favored by 11
PHI @ DAL // Go (uggh) Dallas! Philly loss decreases SF SOS // Eagles by 3
KC @ DEN // Go Denver! A Bronco loss would put them (Seattle) ahead of CAR // Broncos by 13 1/2
GB @ ARI // Go GB! We played ARI x2 and carolina played them once -- responsible for 9.4% of combined SOS // Packers by 3
CIN @ NYJ // Go Jets! A win puts them at 9-7 // Bengals by 9


Below is the draft order if the favorites win (and Car and ATL also win, since there is no line):

Order Team
10 // CHI 7-9 // 492
11 // CAR 7-9 // 550*
12 // MIA 7-9 // 554*
13 // SF 8-8 // 483
14 // JAX 8-8 // 492
15 // HOU 8-8 // 517
16 // NYJ 8-8 // 525
17 // NYG 8-8 // 542
18 // TEN 8-8 // 546
19 // PIT 9-7 // 479
20 // ATL 9-7 // 508
21 // BAL 9-7 // 521
22 // DEN 9-7 // 529



If Miami ends up winning, we move up a spot to #12.

So, IF the FAVORITES WIN, we pick 11 OR 12 and 13; I do not know whether CAR or MIA will have the league's highest SOS
The Worst-Case Scenario is if Carolina Wins. In that case, they could be picking #22, since their SOS is so high; it is unlikely for another 8-8 team to have a higher SOS (since CAR plays NO and MIA plays PIT in week 17). But for Carolina to pick #22, Denver, Baltimore, Atlanta, and the Steelers would all have to lose -- highly unlikely, since that would mean there are ZERO 9-7 teams in 2009.

Great post
Originally posted by stever:
Looks like we are picking at 13 or 14 with the niners pick. If the titans loose, we will pick at #14, else we will pick at #13 because we have the weakest strength of schedule off all the teams that are 8-8 or could be 8-8

There are 12 teams definitly picking ahead of us :

1-Rams 1-15
2-Detroit 2-14
3-Tampa 3-13
4-KC 3-12 (will be 3-13 or 4-12)
5-Skins 4-11 (will be 4-12 or 5-11)
6-Seahawks 5-10 (will be 5-11 or 6-10)
7-Oakland 5-10 (will be 5-11 or 6-10)
8-Cleveland 5-11
9-Buffalo 6-10
10-Miami 7-9
11-Bears 7-9
12-Jax 7-9

Only the titans can get to 7-9 with a loss today. With that loss they would pick ahead of us.

There are 3 teams at 8-8 right now :

Giants
Panthers
49ers

There could be 4 more teams at 8-8:

Jets 8-7
Ravens 8-7
Titans 7-8
Denver 8-7

So at worst ( i don't know the strength of schedule for all those teams), the panthers pick could be at #19).

thanks!!
so at 8-8 we now also have the Titans and Broncos
so we are #13and at worst (assuming jets win) Carolina is #17 or better depending on the other 8-8 teams strenght of schedule
  • mayo49
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 21,290
Originally posted by elguapo:
so we are #13and at worst (assuming jets win) Carolina is #17 or better depending on the other 8-8 teams strenght of schedule

That's right, guapo.
  • hcniner64
  • Info N/A
Right now we are picking 13th this is pretty much set in stone. I went thought the strength of scedules assuming the jets win and carolinas pick would be 16th by the smallest of margins over the titans. And I mean the closest of margins, carolinas s.o.s. would be .53906 and the titans would be .53922

If the jets win our picks would be 13th and 16th. I was too tired of going through schedules to see what would happen if the jets won but even if they did i think the carolina pick would be 18th at the worst.

Bottom line lets go jets
[ Edited by hcniner64 on Jan 3, 2010 at 5:03 PM ]
Originally posted by hcniner64:
Right now we are picking 13th this is pretty much set in stone. I went thought the strength of scedules assuming the jets win and carolinas pick would be 16th by the smallest of margins over the titans. And I mean the closest of margins, carolinas s.o.s. would be .53906 and the titans would be .53922

If the jets win our picks would be 13th and 16th. I was too tired of going through schedules to see what would happen if the jets won but even if they did i think the carolina pick would be 18th at the worst.

Bottom line lets go jets

HCNINER you made my day....all i wanted to know is where CAR pick would be pending the jets game. It looks like we will be 13 and 16....Great news. Thnks
  • mayo49
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 21,290
Originally posted by hcniner64:
Right now we are picking 13th this is pretty much set in stone. I went thought the strength of scedules assuming the jets win and carolinas pick would be 16th by the smallest of margins over the titans. And I mean the closest of margins, carolinas s.o.s. would be .53906 and the titans would be .53922

If the jets win our picks would be 13th and 16th. I was too tired of going through schedules to see what would happen if the jets won but even if they did i think the carolina pick would be 18th at the worst.

Bottom line lets go jets

16 would be better than 17. Good work, hc we'll wait for the Jets game to make it official.
Originally posted by mayo63:
Originally posted by elguapo:
so we are #13and at worst (assuming jets win) Carolina is #17 or better depending on the other 8-8 teams strenght of schedule

That's right, guapo.

You know it MAYO....now it looks like 13 and 16........el jefe has spoken....WOULD YOU SAY WE HAVE A PLETHORA of 1st round picks?
Originally posted by hcniner64:
Right now we are picking 13th this is pretty much set in stone. I went thought the strength of scedules assuming the jets win and carolinas pick would be 16th by the smallest of margins over the titans. And I mean the closest of margins, carolinas s.o.s. would be .53906 and the titans would be .53922

If the jets win our picks would be 13th and 16th. I was too tired of going through schedules to see what would happen if the jets won but even if they did i think the carolina pick would be 18th at the worst.

Bottom line lets go jets

I'm not sure how many decimal places they carry that calculation to, but I bet they flip a coin if the numbers are that close.

J-E-T-S
Jets! Jets! Jets!
Been crunching some numbers. The total number should match 256 games.

Panthers opponents 137-118 (Going into Jets game)
Titans opponents 136-119 (Going into Jets game)
NYG opponents 135-121 (All games complete)

Since both the Panthers and Titans played the Jets, the game is meaningless in the end for the tiebreaker in opponents' W-L. The Niners will miss out on the coin toss with the Titans by one game, and the Giants, by either two or three games.

We will be selecting 13th, and either 17th or 18th depending on the outcome of the game.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Jan 3, 2010 at 5:15 PM ]
  • mayo49
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 21,290
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Been crunching some numbers. The total number should match 256 games.

Panthers opponents 137-118 (Going into Jets game)
Titans opponents 136-119 (Going into Jets game)
NYG opponents 135-121 (All games complete)

Since both the Panthers and Titans played the Jets, the game is meaningless in the end for the tiebreaker in opponents' W-L. The Niners will miss out on the coin toss with the Titans by one game, and the Giants, by either two or three games.

We will be selecting 13th, and either 17th or 18th depending on the outcome of the game.

That's too bad, I thought we had a shot at a coin flip for #16. Oh, well let's hope it's #17.
  • hcniner64
  • Info N/A
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Been crunching some numbers. The total number should match 256 games.

Panthers opponents 137-118 (Going into Jets game)
Titans opponents 136-119 (Going into Jets game)
NYG opponents 135-121 (All games complete)

Since both the Panthers and Titans played the Jets, the game is meaningless in the end for the tiebreaker in opponents' W-L. The Niners will miss out on the coin toss with the Titans by one game, and the Giants, by either two or three games.

We will be selecting 13th, and either 17th or 18th depending on the outcome of the game.

I did a quick run through and based it on percentages and not wins cause I was a little lazy, obviously wins is more accurate. Seeing this made me rethink my math and I was just wondering where I went wrong and tried to convert them to wins instead.
Tennesee has a .546 winning percentage though 15 weeks this comes out to 131.04 wins. (240 x .546 equals 131.04) Their schedule went 7-9 this week so 7 more wins makes 138.04 wins You have that they have 136 wins so if the jets win that would be 137.
Are my percentages i was using wrong or my calculation of their their schedule this week, cause someone made a mistake even though it is one game?
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