MadDog December 10th Top 13 Pick Mock Draft

Originally posted by WillistheWall:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by WillistheWall:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
A couple notes on some of the questions raised and comments made.

First, to me, the demise of Nate Clements is vastly overstated. While he has not been a good bargain for the buck, I still think he plays at a pretty high level. I consider him a starter. However, I'm not sure the Niners feel the same way. The benching before the injury indicates to me that they do not have much confidence in him. In addition, as stated earlier, while Spencer has had a great year, I think he's on borrowed time. Corners rarely make the type of comeback he has made. And, his tendency to break down in the past doesn't leave me feeling secure with Brown, Bly, Harris, Smith, Hudson behind him. The Niners are going to need to pick up a CB sometime in the next couple of years, and Haden is clearly an elite talent.

Next, OTC and I are both pretty high on Lane, from Murray State. He presents terrific measurables and productivity. Very excited to see how he does in post-season competition and workouts. I had a slimmer defensive end from Akron graded as a mid-first rounder about a decade ago. He ended up being one of the great third round selections in modern defensive history: Jason Taylor. While Lane is certainly no Jason Taylor, he proves that some of these small schoolers can make it in the big time.

I disagree a bit with OTC on his evaluation of Anthony Davis. I thought he was terrific against some good pass rushers this year. One of the better DE prospects in the NCAA, Greg Romeus of Pitt, was almost completely shut out by Davis, and Davis also made South Florida DE's George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul look very pedestrian.

While I do not see him as an elite LT, I do see him as a top-level RT. He's got a good all-around game, has long arms and good size. For a team looking for a stud RT, this guy projects very well.

As for Eric Berry, while people should never say never (who would have thought that Crabtree would be at number 10...although early in 2008, I did make one crazy prediction that DHB would be drafted before him due to speed....only to chicken out on that prediction as DHB's productivity was shallow last year), Eric Berry is unlikely to be on the board when the Niners pick. I cannot see KC passing on him.

As for Ndamukong Suh (En-DOM-uh-ken Sue), he's perfect as a 4-3 undertackle, or 3-4 DE. I wouldn't play him anywhere else.

As for Dez Bryant, I'm not sure who will represent him, but Eugene Parker has to be at the top of the list. I'm not sure the suspension (and Deion Sanders' link to Parker) will effect Bryant's interest in selecting Crabtree's agent. And, I just don't see the Niners selecting any Parker client in the near future.

Final note: I believe Spiller is perfect in a one-back set, saddled alongside Smith in the shotgun. He's got a ton of wiggle, lightening fast acceleration, and good hands. He is a game breaker, one of the few in this draft.

Cheers.

What do you think about Earl Thomas? If Berry isn't there he's probably the next best thing since we need a ball hawk. Also what DE/OLBs do you like? You think Romeus or Pierre-Paul will enter? Do you like Antonio Coleman or anyone 3rd round and beyond like that(I know you mentioned Lane though)?

Coleman has underwhelmed this year, and would likely be available in the 6th or 7th round barring any miraculous combine numbers, but he's not expected to time well and probably will not check in with the measurables teams are looking for either.

I look for Coleman to to check in at about 6-1 259 and clocking in the low 4.8's

Yeah I had him in the 6th I think in my mock draft. I dunno about underwhelmed, I mean the guy has 9 sacks I think. That's pretty good for underwhelming. Plenty of good pass rushers have come out of the later rounds. Adalius Thomas was a 6th rounder IIRC. I'd take a flyer on him? What do you think of the other guys I listed?

btw Thomas has changed his tune apparently about the draft

Yeah, You're right. Underwhelmed is not really the right word. I'm not sure what the word is. Maybe just didn't reach quite where I thought he could. He's put up really good numbers, it's just, most people expected him to go off and play to the level that Groves did, like a late 1st-2nd rounder. I actually think he's got 3rd round talent, but his size and the fact that he's not a speed rusher at all hurts him. However, he's non-stop hustle guy, and I wouldn't be opposed to using a 5th on him. If you look at his QB hurries stat -- he's got like a minimum of 13 per year. That's a heck of feat. Shows he's constantly getting after the QB. He'll probably wind up like Haralson though, a guy not all that agile, but can get pressure every so often.

15.5 TFL, 9 sacks. But if he interviews poorly and/or runs a 4.8 or worse, the highest he'll go is probably round 4.

As for Lane. I'd totally pull the trigger in the middle of round 2, and definitely by round 3. Like I said. Lane is exponentially better than Sidbury as a prospect right now. Sidbury was 6-2 267 and ran a 4.64 I believe. I'd have to look up the stats, but I think Lane surpassed him. (Just looked them up and yeah, Sidbury had one 11.5 sack year, the year before he only had 5 sacks. Lane at 6-6 260 4.60 has back to back 11+ sack, 20+ TFL seasons.) Plus Lane has more QB hurries and drops into coverage unlike Sidbury, who never did.

[ Edited by OnTheClock on Dec 12, 2009 at 00:16:26 ]

I think this is one of those rare occurrences where a middle of the road team has two high draft picks. Get it right and it turns the franchise in the right direction.

Although they have invested in the OL, the only pick that has done well is Staley (Baas and Snyder and Smiley being the others, and Rachal still learning). They have obvious holes at guard and RT.

Williams is probably at least one of the first two picks and should be a decade long solution. I agree with everyone on Mays...he doesn't have as much impact as he should. I'm not a fan.

On Clements, I think he's still a solid player, albeit overpaid. I do think Spencer had a nice comeback year and Brown has some potential, but if Haden is a lock down, I would support this pick.

Spiller would be perfect as a gun back, but I also look back at the Bush's and Ginn's and see how much impact they really have. They make the highlight films every now and then, but get limited as to how much they can be really be utilized.

As for having a tremendous amount of weapons, let's not model the Seahawks, who invested in Branch, Housh, Branch and Butler. Of course that resulted in no line to protect their QB and a defense that is a sieve.

Originally posted by fryet:
One request - for future mocks, can you list the position that they play? In many cases, I could tell from the description, but there were some exceptions. Pretty soon, I will know what position all of the top draftees play, but I am not quite there yet.

Sure, I'll add the position. Look for my Big Boards soon, which will have player names, team, position, and projected draft placement.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by fryet:
One request - for future mocks, can you list the position that they play? In many cases, I could tell from the description, but there were some exceptions. Pretty soon, I will know what position all of the top draftees play, but I am not quite there yet.

Sure, I'll add the position. Look for my Big Boards soon, which will have player names, team, position, and projected draft placement.

When do you plan on posting the first one?

Originally posted by WillistheWall:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
A couple notes on some of the questions raised and comments made.

First, to me, the demise of Nate Clements is vastly overstated. While he has not been a good bargain for the buck, I still think he plays at a pretty high level. I consider him a starter. However, I'm not sure the Niners feel the same way. The benching before the injury indicates to me that they do not have much confidence in him. In addition, as stated earlier, while Spencer has had a great year, I think he's on borrowed time. Corners rarely make the type of comeback he has made. And, his tendency to break down in the past doesn't leave me feeling secure with Brown, Bly, Harris, Smith, Hudson behind him. The Niners are going to need to pick up a CB sometime in the next couple of years, and Haden is clearly an elite talent.

Next, OTC and I are both pretty high on Lane, from Murray State. He presents terrific measurables and productivity. Very excited to see how he does in post-season competition and workouts. I had a slimmer defensive end from Akron graded as a mid-first rounder about a decade ago. He ended up being one of the great third round selections in modern defensive history: Jason Taylor. While Lane is certainly no Jason Taylor, he proves that some of these small schoolers can make it in the big time.

I disagree a bit with OTC on his evaluation of Anthony Davis. I thought he was terrific against some good pass rushers this year. One of the better DE prospects in the NCAA, Greg Romeus of Pitt, was almost completely shut out by Davis, and Davis also made South Florida DE's George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul look very pedestrian.

While I do not see him as an elite LT, I do see him as a top-level RT. He's got a good all-around game, has long arms and good size. For a team looking for a stud RT, this guy projects very well.

As for Eric Berry, while people should never say never (who would have thought that Crabtree would be at number 10...although early in 2008, I did make one crazy prediction that DHB would be drafted before him due to speed....only to chicken out on that prediction as DHB's productivity was shallow last year), Eric Berry is unlikely to be on the board when the Niners pick. I cannot see KC passing on him.

As for Ndamukong Suh (En-DOM-uh-ken Sue), he's perfect as a 4-3 undertackle, or 3-4 DE. I wouldn't play him anywhere else.

As for Dez Bryant, I'm not sure who will represent him, but Eugene Parker has to be at the top of the list. I'm not sure the suspension (and Deion Sanders' link to Parker) will effect Bryant's interest in selecting Crabtree's agent. And, I just don't see the Niners selecting any Parker client in the near future.

Final note: I believe Spiller is perfect in a one-back set, saddled alongside Smith in the shotgun. He's got a ton of wiggle, lightening fast acceleration, and good hands. He is a game breaker, one of the few in this draft.

Cheers.

What do you think about Earl Thomas? If Berry isn't there he's probably the next best thing since we need a ball hawk. Also what DE/OLBs do you like? You think Romeus or Pierre-Paul will enter? Do you like Antonio Coleman or anyone 3rd round and beyond like that(I know you mentioned Lane though)?

Earl Thomas has had a terrific year. An excellent ballhawk. My concern with Thomas is twofold: 1) Is he a one-year wonder? 2) What is his final height, and will that be an issue in the NFL? He's listed at 5'10", but I think he'll measure at 5'9". Now, that doesn't automatically disqualify him. I mean, Bob Sanders is even shorter. However, Sanders is an athletic freak. I'm not sure Thomas is nearly as athletic. And, this could be an issue for scouts and coaches. We'll have to wait and see.

Jason Pierre-Paul is a freak, and if he comes out, should be a top 15 pick. I just think he's going back to school. I could be wrong. If he comes out, he could end up a top 10 pick, if he looks tremendous in combine and campus workout drills. A lot of scouts think he's got a ton of upside.

Romeus is another top underclassman, but I do not think he is a 10+ sack DE. However, he should be a solid pro, and someone that will surely start in the NFL. I'm just not as high on him as some others who closely watch the game.

Originally posted by strickac:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by fryet:
One request - for future mocks, can you list the position that they play? In many cases, I could tell from the description, but there were some exceptions. Pretty soon, I will know what position all of the top draftees play, but I am not quite there yet.

Sure, I'll add the position. Look for my Big Boards soon, which will have player names, team, position, and projected draft placement.

When do you plan on posting the first one?

Before Christmas. Of course, it will be full of speculation over who is in, and who will come back to school. Since most players wait until after their bowl game, it is hard to break down the players until the list is complete.

Originally posted by ninergold:
I think this is one of those rare occurrences where a middle of the road team has two high draft picks. Get it right and it turns the franchise in the right direction.

Although they have invested in the OL, the only pick that has done well is Staley (Baas and Snyder and Smiley being the others, and Rachal still learning). They have obvious holes at guard and RT.

Williams is probably at least one of the first two picks and should be a decade long solution. I agree with everyone on Mays...he doesn't have as much impact as he should. I'm not a fan.

On Clements, I think he's still a solid player, albeit overpaid. I do think Spencer had a nice comeback year and Brown has some potential, but if Haden is a lock down, I would support this pick.

Spiller would be perfect as a gun back, but I also look back at the Bush's and Ginn's and see how much impact they really have. They make the highlight films every now and then, but get limited as to how much they can be really be utilized.

As for having a tremendous amount of weapons, let's not model the Seahawks, who invested in Branch, Housh, Branch and Butler. Of course that resulted in no line to protect their QB and a defense that is a sieve.

The team surely has some big needs to fill. However, they don't want to bypass a guy who will be a major difference maker in the league just to adequately fill a position with a need pick. Should be a fascinating draft, for sure.

One thing I really look for at this time of the year is:
1) Who is a man amongst boys? I always loved Orakpo last year for this quality. And, there are a few guys who seem to embody that idea this season: Suh, Graham, etc.

2) Who rises above the rest in the post-season action? We saw Raji really turn it on, as well as Cushing, last season. Who will make that impression this year?

Great job guys. This is going to be a very important draft for this team & franchise with two 1st rounders.

All I know is that the Niners need to land the G, Mike Iupati. This guy is a beast and the best Guard in the draft. I am not sure if he will be there for the Niners in the 2nd round, so he might be worth trading up a bit for.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by WillistheWall:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
A couple notes on some of the questions raised and comments made.

First, to me, the demise of Nate Clements is vastly overstated. While he has not been a good bargain for the buck, I still think he plays at a pretty high level. I consider him a starter. However, I'm not sure the Niners feel the same way. The benching before the injury indicates to me that they do not have much confidence in him. In addition, as stated earlier, while Spencer has had a great year, I think he's on borrowed time. Corners rarely make the type of comeback he has made. And, his tendency to break down in the past doesn't leave me feeling secure with Brown, Bly, Harris, Smith, Hudson behind him. The Niners are going to need to pick up a CB sometime in the next couple of years, and Haden is clearly an elite talent.

Next, OTC and I are both pretty high on Lane, from Murray State. He presents terrific measurables and productivity. Very excited to see how he does in post-season competition and workouts. I had a slimmer defensive end from Akron graded as a mid-first rounder about a decade ago. He ended up being one of the great third round selections in modern defensive history: Jason Taylor. While Lane is certainly no Jason Taylor, he proves that some of these small schoolers can make it in the big time.

I disagree a bit with OTC on his evaluation of Anthony Davis. I thought he was terrific against some good pass rushers this year. One of the better DE prospects in the NCAA, Greg Romeus of Pitt, was almost completely shut out by Davis, and Davis also made South Florida DE's George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul look very pedestrian.

While I do not see him as an elite LT, I do see him as a top-level RT. He's got a good all-around game, has long arms and good size. For a team looking for a stud RT, this guy projects very well.

As for Eric Berry, while people should never say never (who would have thought that Crabtree would be at number 10...although early in 2008, I did make one crazy prediction that DHB would be drafted before him due to speed....only to chicken out on that prediction as DHB's productivity was shallow last year), Eric Berry is unlikely to be on the board when the Niners pick. I cannot see KC passing on him.

As for Ndamukong Suh (En-DOM-uh-ken Sue), he's perfect as a 4-3 undertackle, or 3-4 DE. I wouldn't play him anywhere else.

As for Dez Bryant, I'm not sure who will represent him, but Eugene Parker has to be at the top of the list. I'm not sure the suspension (and Deion Sanders' link to Parker) will effect Bryant's interest in selecting Crabtree's agent. And, I just don't see the Niners selecting any Parker client in the near future.

Final note: I believe Spiller is perfect in a one-back set, saddled alongside Smith in the shotgun. He's got a ton of wiggle, lightening fast acceleration, and good hands. He is a game breaker, one of the few in this draft.

Cheers.

What do you think about Earl Thomas? If Berry isn't there he's probably the next best thing since we need a ball hawk. Also what DE/OLBs do you like? You think Romeus or Pierre-Paul will enter? Do you like Antonio Coleman or anyone 3rd round and beyond like that(I know you mentioned Lane though)?

Earl Thomas has had a terrific year. An excellent ballhawk. My concern with Thomas is twofold: 1) Is he a one-year wonder? 2) What is his final height, and will that be an issue in the NFL? He's listed at 5'10", but I think he'll measure at 5'9". Now, that doesn't automatically disqualify him. I mean, Bob Sanders is even shorter. However, Sanders is an athletic freak. I'm not sure Thomas is nearly as athletic. And, this could be an issue for scouts and coaches. We'll have to wait and see.

Jason Pierre-Paul is a freak, and if he comes out, should be a top 15 pick. I just think he's going back to school. I could be wrong. If he comes out, he could end up a top 10 pick, if he looks tremendous in combine and campus workout drills. A lot of scouts think he's got a ton of upside.

Romeus is another top underclassman, but I do not think he is a 10+ sack DE. However, he should be a solid pro, and someone that will surely start in the NFL. I'm just not as high on him as some others who closely watch the game.

could jason pierre paul make transition to olb in niners 3-4?

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
The draft order below is based on a tiebreaking formula created to project the final winning % of opponents, in order to break tiebreakers. In the current scenario, here is how I see the draft shaking out:

1. Browns- Ndamukong Suh- It is clear here in Ohio that Mangini is on borrowed time, so his 3-4 scheme will probably be taken out of town in early January. Suh is a big time interior defender who will add a huge asset to the Browns. The Bengals and Steelers are primarily run-oriented teams, and Suh as a 4-3 undertackle is a tasty proposition against these division opponents. Expect the Browns to keep B. Quinn, or look to free agency.

2. Rams- Jake Locker- Locker has the physical skill set that is unmatched in this draft at the QB position. Size, arm-strength, mobility. The Rams are more than happy to send Bulger to the curb, and let the rookie get some playing time right away. In a pass-happy NFC West, the Rams need to put up some points, so this change is essential to the future of the Rams.

3. TB Bucs- Russell Okung- The Bucs may have found their franchise QB in this draft in Freeman, but need a stud LT to keep him upright. Although Okung is not at the same prospect level as J. Long, or J. Smith, he presents long-term security to a franchise that simply does not score points. Plus, this is the area where modern draft history dictates an OT will be taken.

4. Detroit- Gerald McCoy- McCoy is just a small step below Suh. Fast and explosive, teams can line him up as a DT or DE on passing downs. The Lions are 30th in the NFL in defense, so someone has to come in and help. Note: The Lions were silly/stupid/moronic for drafting a TE at number 20 last year when James Laurinaitis was on the board. They still need help at MLB.

5. Washington- Jimmy Clausen- The Skins seem determined to find a new QB to replace Jason Campbell, and Clausen represents the guy most ready to step in and start on Day One. Daniel Snyder is impatient, and will throw him on the field right away. But, he better get FA help at OT, or the rookie will get slaughtered.

6. Kansas City- Eric Berry- This is truly one of the no-brainer picks of the draft. The Chiefs back end of the secondary is abominable, and the team needs a leader and anchon for the defense, especially a pass defense that ranks 28th in the NFL. Berry will be the NFL defensive rookie of the year.

7. Buffalo- Sam Bradford- T.O. seemed to be on his way out the door in 2010...until a couple weeks ago, when he began to make a dramatic comeback with the team. The greater concern in Buffalo is at QB. The talk is that Trent Edwards is done with the team, so this team will probably hunt for Mike Vick, draft the next best QB on the board, or both. Bradford is dinged right now, but has a solid resume. He can sit for a year behind Fitzpatrick or Vick.

8. Oakland- Carlos Dunlap- The Raiders love athletes, and Dunlap, even with his DUI, is an athlete. Is this a wise pick? No. But, when has Al Davis made a wise first round pick in the draft? The big, 290 pounder will run a 4.70, and Davis will run his card up to the podium at the draft.

9. Seattle- Anthony Davis- The Rutgers LT is a big, physical guy, who will continue to move up draft boards this offseason. He is far from a perfect prospect, but when he engages an opponent, they don't go anywhere. The Hawks need a long-term replacement for Walter Jones.

10. Denver (from Chicago)- Cameron Heyward- The Broncos pass defense is phenomenal, ranked second in the NFL. However, their run defense is 16th. Heyward is a big-time athlete who can play the 3-4 DE position. He continues to improve each year, and still has a big upside to his game. Look for Mike Nolan to have an extra toy to play with in 2010.

11. SF- Trent Williams- The Niners will play it safe here and grab the OT they desperately need. Williams is perfectly suited for the RT position, and can help the ailing run game. The Niners will still see two players on the board that they covet, knowing one will fall into their laps.

12. Houston- Derrick Morgan- Another no-brainer for this team on the clock. The Texans are 30th in the NFL in sacks, and with Peyton Manning on the schedule twice a year, this has to be fixed. Morgan is the best pure 4-3 DE in this draft.

13. SF (from Carolina)- Joe Haden- The Niners seem tremendously unsettled at one corner position going into 2010. It appears the team is flirting with the idea of dumping Nate Clements, or moving him to FS, which may be the best alternative. While Shawntae Spencer has been terrific in 2009, he has had a history of injuries, and the lack of depth, as seen by the erratic play of Dre Bly and Tarell Brown, could point to the Niners picking up CB help. Haden is clearly the ace of the CB class in 2010.

Next off the board: Dez Bryant, who I believe will interview poorly, and will scare off some teams in the top 10 picks; CJ Spiller, who will burn the track at the combine.

Note: Keep a sharp eye on Murray State DE Austen Lane. This is a kid who is 6'6", 260 pounds, and runs a 4.60. Do not be surprised if he is the "shock" of the draft, as a kid who jumps into the middle of the first round.

Cheers.

Okay, Cleveland runs a 3-4 and drafting a guy like Suh and putting him in a 3-4 is like putting a Ferrari in a demolition derby. No way Cleveland takes Suh with that pick. My guess is Suh goes to Tampa Bay who is picking 1st overall.

Washington won't be picking in the top eight. I put them more around the 9 spots drafting with the 49ers at 6 or 7 with the Carolina pick.

Kansas City's most pressing need is on the offensive line. There is no way they pass on Okung if he is available even though I think Trent Williams is better.

Here is how I see the top 6 with us taking Campbell, Davis, or Williams at OT with number 11 or 12.

1. Tampa - Suh
2. St. Louis - Clausen
3. Cleveland - Rolando McClain
4. Detroit - McCoy
5. Kansas City - Okung
6. San Francisco - Eric Berry