The draft order below is based on a tiebreaking formula created to project the final winning % of opponents, in order to break tiebreakers. In the current scenario, here is how I see the draft shaking out:
1. Browns- Ndamukong Suh- It is clear here in Ohio that Mangini is on borrowed time, so his 3-4 scheme will probably be taken out of town in early January. Suh is a big time interior defender who will add a huge asset to the Browns. The Bengals and Steelers are primarily run-oriented teams, and Suh as a 4-3 undertackle is a tasty proposition against these division opponents. Expect the Browns to keep B. Quinn, or look to free agency.
2. Rams- Jake Locker- Locker has the physical skill set that is unmatched in this draft at the QB position. Size, arm-strength, mobility. The Rams are more than happy to send Bulger to the curb, and let the rookie get some playing time right away. In a pass-happy NFC West, the Rams need to put up some points, so this change is essential to the future of the Rams.
3. TB Bucs- Russell Okung- The Bucs may have found their franchise QB in this draft in Freeman, but need a stud LT to keep him upright. Although Okung is not at the same prospect level as J. Long, or J. Smith, he presents long-term security to a franchise that simply does not score points. Plus, this is the area where modern draft history dictates an OT will be taken.
4. Detroit- Gerald McCoy- McCoy is just a small step below Suh. Fast and explosive, teams can line him up as a DT or DE on passing downs. The Lions are 30th in the NFL in defense, so someone has to come in and help. Note: The Lions were silly/stupid/moronic for drafting a TE at number 20 last year when James Laurinaitis was on the board. They still need help at MLB.
5. Washington- Jimmy Clausen- The Skins seem determined to find a new QB to replace Jason Campbell, and Clausen represents the guy most ready to step in and start on Day One. Daniel Snyder is impatient, and will throw him on the field right away. But, he better get FA help at OT, or the rookie will get slaughtered.
6. Kansas City- Eric Berry- This is truly one of the no-brainer picks of the draft. The Chiefs back end of the secondary is abominable, and the team needs a leader and anchon for the defense, especially a pass defense that ranks 28th in the NFL. Berry will be the NFL defensive rookie of the year.
7. Buffalo- Sam Bradford- T.O. seemed to be on his way out the door in 2010...until a couple weeks ago, when he began to make a dramatic comeback with the team. The greater concern in Buffalo is at QB. The talk is that Trent Edwards is done with the team, so this team will probably hunt for Mike Vick, draft the next best QB on the board, or both. Bradford is dinged right now, but has a solid resume. He can sit for a year behind Fitzpatrick or Vick.
8. Oakland- Carlos Dunlap- The Raiders love athletes, and Dunlap, even with his DUI, is an athlete. Is this a wise pick? No. But, when has Al Davis made a wise first round pick in the draft? The big, 290 pounder will run a 4.70, and Davis will run his card up to the podium at the draft.
9. Seattle- Anthony Davis- The Rutgers LT is a big, physical guy, who will continue to move up draft boards this offseason. He is far from a perfect prospect, but when he engages an opponent, they don't go anywhere. The Hawks need a long-term replacement for Walter Jones.
10. Denver (from Chicago)- Cameron Heyward- The Broncos pass defense is phenomenal, ranked second in the NFL. However, their run defense is 16th. Heyward is a big-time athlete who can play the 3-4 DE position. He continues to improve each year, and still has a big upside to his game. Look for Mike Nolan to have an extra toy to play with in 2010.
11. SF- Trent Williams- The Niners will play it safe here and grab the OT they desperately need. Williams is perfectly suited for the RT position, and can help the ailing run game. The Niners will still see two players on the board that they covet, knowing one will fall into their laps.
12. Houston- Derrick Morgan- Another no-brainer for this team on the clock. The Texans are 30th in the NFL in sacks, and with Peyton Manning on the schedule twice a year, this has to be fixed. Morgan is the best pure 4-3 DE in this draft.
13. SF (from Carolina)- Joe Haden- The Niners seem tremendously unsettled at one corner position going into 2010. It appears the team is flirting with the idea of dumping Nate Clements, or moving him to FS, which may be the best alternative. While Shawntae Spencer has been terrific in 2009, he has had a history of injuries, and the lack of depth, as seen by the erratic play of Dre Bly and Tarell Brown, could point to the Niners picking up CB help. Haden is clearly the ace of the CB class in 2010.
Next off the board: Dez Bryant, who I believe will interview poorly, and will scare off some teams in the top 10 picks; CJ Spiller, who will burn the track at the combine.
Note: Keep a sharp eye on Murray State DE Austen Lane. This is a kid who is 6'6", 260 pounds, and runs a 4.60. Do not be surprised if he is the "shock" of the draft, as a kid who jumps into the middle of the first round.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Dec 10, 2009 at 16:10:28 ]