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Possibly waiting for Need

Looking at precombine predictions, educated guesses of who may declare, and draft positional numbers waiting until the 2nd round for an OLB may be safe for us. Going through each position we can reasonably estimate the number of players who are Round 1 talent, these are conservative estimates of course:

QB-3
RB-2
WR-4
TE-1
OT-4
OG-1
C-1

DT-3
DE-3
MLB-1
CB-2
FS/SS-2

At this point we would be looking at roughly 27 players taken off the board who are not the DE/OLB that we are looking for. Obviously these numbers will fluctuate a bit but I think we could be safe targeting a kid in the 2nd in case we miss out in the 1st. By my guesses there should be roughly 10 kids who fit the 1st to 2nd round grade that we could target. Granted teams ahead of us in the 2nd could take all remaining OLB/DE targets but chances are it wont happen. Looking at that number (10) it does make more sense to pull the trigger on a ROT in round 1 then potentially waiting till round 2 when the talent is gone.
Interesting post. The way I look on it is this. Without a pass rusher our D has averaged out quite good. Without an OT and an OG our O has struggled big time.

So all other things being equal - and you have to weigh up equivalent value, I hope to see a tackle taken during round one. Of course it depends on where we draft and who has dropped.

If I could see a starting OT and a real pass rush, and maybe an impact player (rb?) in the first two rounds, then a guard and some db and OL projects that would suit me.

Despite the cap room I have little expectation of FA.
Good info there.
Originally posted by jreff22:
Looking at precombine predictions, educated guesses of who may declare, and draft positional numbers waiting until the 2nd round for an OLB may be safe for us. Going through each position we can reasonably estimate the number of players who are Round 1 talent, these are conservative estimates of course:

QB-3
RB-2
WR-4
TE-1
OT-4
OG-1
C-1

DT-3
DE-3
MLB-1
CB-2
FS/SS-2

At this point we would be looking at roughly 27 players taken off the board who are not the DE/OLB that we are looking for. Obviously these numbers will fluctuate a bit but I think we could be safe targeting a kid in the 2nd in case we miss out in the 1st. By my guesses there should be roughly 10 kids who fit the 1st to 2nd round grade that we could target. Granted teams ahead of us in the 2nd could take all remaining OLB/DE targets but chances are it wont happen. Looking at that number (10) it does make more sense to pull the trigger on a ROT in round 1 then potentially waiting till round 2 when the talent is gone.

I think there might be a little more. I can't remember if I put one out last year, but I did have a spreadsheet of all the first round talents (which obviously amounted to more than 32 players), according to my observations.

Perhaps I could put together another one for reference.
I don't want us REACHING for guys. But at the same time what is a reach?

Teams do their boards based on a guy's play/potential but there also needs to be an emphasis on what position they play.

Do we rank a tight end higher than a receiver because he's a better tight end than the receiver is a receiver?

Well we have Vernon Davis but can still use some help at receiver...I'm sure the board gets a bump for the receiver.

Same for OLB vs 3-4 DE.

And at some point you have to look at the how the draft is going. If there is a run on OLB when our pick rolls around and we look at our board and it has DE, CB, OT, S, OLB in that order on there...do you follow the board or see the run on OLB and "reach" by essentially skipping 4 higher rated guys at the other positions?

There is a fine line between reaching. I think BPA tends to give you the better drafts but at some point you have to adjust for need. Also let's not forget what may seem like a reach to us and other draftniks may certainly not be a reach for NFL teams.

...and then there is DHB.
take BPA when it comes to the first round, end of story, or trade down.
Originally posted by jreff22:
Looking at precombine predictions, educated guesses of who may declare, and draft positional numbers waiting until the 2nd round for an OLB may be safe for us. Going through each position we can reasonably estimate the number of players who are Round 1 talent, these are conservative estimates of course:

QB-3
RB-2
WR-4
TE-1
OT-4
OG-1
C-1

DT-3
DE-3
MLB-1
CB-2
FS/SS-2

At this point we would be looking at roughly 27 players taken off the board who are not the DE/OLB that we are looking for. Obviously these numbers will fluctuate a bit but I think we could be safe targeting a kid in the 2nd in case we miss out in the 1st. By my guesses there should be roughly 10 kids who fit the 1st to 2nd round grade that we could target. Granted teams ahead of us in the 2nd could take all remaining OLB/DE targets but chances are it wont happen. Looking at that number (10) it does make more sense to pull the trigger on a ROT in round 1 then potentially waiting till round 2 when the talent is gone.

Can you fill in the blanks with the actual prospects? It would be interesting to see who you (....or your source) rates as first rounders.
Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Looking at precombine predictions, educated guesses of who may declare, and draft positional numbers waiting until the 2nd round for an OLB may be safe for us. Going through each position we can reasonably estimate the number of players who are Round 1 talent, these are conservative estimates of course:

QB-3
RB-2
WR-4
TE-1
OT-4
OG-1
C-1

DT-3
DE-3
MLB-1
CB-2
FS/SS-2

At this point we would be looking at roughly 27 players taken off the board who are not the DE/OLB that we are looking for. Obviously these numbers will fluctuate a bit but I think we could be safe targeting a kid in the 2nd in case we miss out in the 1st. By my guesses there should be roughly 10 kids who fit the 1st to 2nd round grade that we could target. Granted teams ahead of us in the 2nd could take all remaining OLB/DE targets but chances are it wont happen. Looking at that number (10) it does make more sense to pull the trigger on a ROT in round 1 then potentially waiting till round 2 when the talent is gone.

Can you fill in the blanks with the actual prospects? It would be interesting to see who you (....or your source) rates as first rounders.

QR-Bradford, Clausen, McCoy (possibly Tebow)
RB-Spiller, Dwyer
WR-Bryant, LaFell, Gilyard, Benn (possibly Tate)
TE-Gresham
OT-Okung, Williams, Davis, Bulaga
OG-Iupati
C-Pouncey

DT-Cody, McCoy, Suh
DE-Dunlap, Wootton, Morgan
MLB-Spikes (McClain if he declares)
CB-Haden, Robinson
FS/SS-Berry, Mays
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Looking at precombine predictions, educated guesses of who may declare, and draft positional numbers waiting until the 2nd round for an OLB may be safe for us. Going through each position we can reasonably estimate the number of players who are Round 1 talent, these are conservative estimates of course:

QB-3
RB-2
WR-4
TE-1
OT-4
OG-1
C-1

DT-3
DE-3
MLB-1
CB-2
FS/SS-2

At this point we would be looking at roughly 27 players taken off the board who are not the DE/OLB that we are looking for. Obviously these numbers will fluctuate a bit but I think we could be safe targeting a kid in the 2nd in case we miss out in the 1st. By my guesses there should be roughly 10 kids who fit the 1st to 2nd round grade that we could target. Granted teams ahead of us in the 2nd could take all remaining OLB/DE targets but chances are it wont happen. Looking at that number (10) it does make more sense to pull the trigger on a ROT in round 1 then potentially waiting till round 2 when the talent is gone.

Can you fill in the blanks with the actual prospects? It would be interesting to see who you (....or your source) rates as first rounders.

QR-Bradford, Clausen, McCoy (possibly Tebow)
RB-Spiller, Dwyer
WR-Bryant, LaFell, Gilyard, Benn (possibly Tate)
TE-Gresham
OT-Okung, Williams, Davis, Bulaga
OG-Iupati
C-Pouncey

DT-Cody, McCoy, Suh
DE-Dunlap, Wootton, Morgan
MLB-Spikes (McClain if he declares)
CB-Haden, Robinson
FS/SS-Berry, Mays

I like all of these players but man if Bryant or Dwyer fell to us I think I'd be really excited. Obviously we have a good RB and a good WR corp but holy crap I think those 2 guys are superstars in the future. I wouldn't mind Haden or Robinson, or one of the MLBs(I kind of want to see what McKillop has though), and we need an OT, and if Berry is there for the Carolina pick we pretty much have no choice but to pick him, but it'd be nice to get one of those guys.