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Better NFL QB: McCoy or Bradford

Better NFL QB: McCoy or Bradford

http://www.ninersnation.com/2009/4/24/851741/a-statistical-look-at-drafting-qbs
This is a rather dense look at what college statistics can be used to predict which QBs succeed in the NFL. David Lewen at Football Outsiders looked at all the QBs in the last decade or so and found some interesting corollaries regarding college stats and NFL success.

Basically 37 games started and 60% completion rate is the bench-mark for a successful NFL career. However this only holds for 1st and 2nd rounders. If you are drafted in the first two rounds, and had over 37 games started and a completion rate of over 60%, chances are you will be successful in the NFL. QBs drafted in the first two rounds who started less than 37 games are almost never successful. (There is a great graph on the above link)

(If you disagree with those numbers or don’t understand the math, you can take it up with the people on the site, I am bringing them up to enlighten the 2010 QB debate.)

The quarterbacks that are each in the top-5 for Scout, Bleacher Report, NFL Draft Scout (CBS sports) and Mel Kiper are Bradford, McCoy and Dan LeFevour. Jevan Snead and Tim Tebow made 3 of the 4 top-5s, Zac Robinson made 2, and Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike each made 1:
http://www.ninersnation.com/2009/4/24/851741/a-statistical-look-at-drafting-qbs

Looking at the stats for those players and comparing them against the benchmark of 37 games started and 60% completion, the initial conclusion is this: This is going to be the best QB draft in the last decade…by far.

Based on the metrics given in the first link, McCoy is looking to be the best QB prospect in the last decade. If Bradford stays in school his senior year, he would be a close second; although even when he does come out next year, he is an amazing prospect. Even LeFevour looks like one of the top 5 QBs of the past decade (maybe the second best after McCoy). I’m sure most of you will vehemently disagree with that last statement, but the stats are the stats and the corollary between those stats and success is pretty damn impressive.

As for the other players listed above, Zac Robinson and Tim Tebow could be successful QBs, but only if they are deemed good enough to be drafted in the first two rounds (that is weird, but makes sense if you think about it). Jevan Snead is shaping up to be the worst prospect and the others are somewhere in the middle, which means they probably won’t be successful.
A couple interesting stats based on my previous post:
For players drafted in the first or second round in the last 10 years:

If you started 37 games or more and had a completion % higher than 60% in college, you have a 89% chance of being at least as good as Eli Manning.

If you started less than 37 games, regardless of completion %, you have a 11% chance of being better than Eli Manning. If your completion % was less than 60%, your chances of being better than Eli are 0%.
Originally posted by alwaysa49erfan:
Originally posted by GoFD74:
^^
2008 SEC Championship game highlights

Like any QB, some of his throws where the screen passes and dump-offs, but a few key passes were downfield, and he hit his guy in stride as you'll see.

Most importantly, when down near the goal line, he made very quick, hard and accurate throws to his WRs for TD passes in places where only they could catch the ball. Very impressive.

Dude, showing highlight clips from some of his games shows nothing but he has had some good plays throughout his career. Great. I'm guessing I can Youtube highlights from about 100 other QBs in CFB and have them look good. I don't think anyone is arguing that. The fact is Tebow hasn't been asked to do much. Maybe this year he will be asked to make some real NFL throws. He's great in Urban's system, perfect even. So was Alex Smith. Does the fact that he can run the spread option offense mean he will easily translate to the Pros as a great QB? I think not.

I couldn't agree more with this assessment.
TEBOW

favorite quote, "But it's a lesson: Superman in college can become Danny Wuerffel in the pros."


One of the stupidest things I've read on the board. Tebow has won the Heismann, two national championships, and was a finalist this year again. So no, not all QBs look as good as Tebow.
Originally posted by nannite:
Originally posted by TexasNiner:
Originally posted by Norwalks_Best:
How about the QB from Ol Miss he is being mention as a good NFL prospect Sneed is his last name I believe?

Anyone have any info on the guy he did beat Florida last year>?

He actually could be the sleeper in all this. He was at Texas for a year or two before realizing he was never going to wrestle the job away from Colt, so he transfered.

Living in Austin, I watched him (Jevan Sneed) since he was recruited. Once he got installed as the full time guy at Ole Miss, he really looked sharp. A good year this year, and he could be in the Heisman running a very possibly a first round consideration or a 2nd round steal.

If he was not as good as McCoy at UT, then he has very little chance of being better than him in the NFL. Players don't mysteriously get better after sitting on the bench for years. Maybe a 3rd or 4th rounder would be good, but he is not worth a first day pick.

This could also be called the Booty/Sanchez corollary. In other words, Sanchez was a worse QB than Booty for his first two years at USC, than has one good year and is expected to be a star in the NFL?


Completely incorrect - The only reason Booty started over sanchez is because he had the experience and Carroll has always given prescedence to the older players when it comes to QB.

Booty just never did anything to relinquish control of the starting job.
Originally posted by nannite:
http://www.ninersnation.com/2009/4/24/851741/a-statistical-look-at-drafting-qbs
This is a rather dense look at what college statistics can be used to predict which QBs succeed in the NFL. David Lewen at Football Outsiders looked at all the QBs in the last decade or so and found some interesting corollaries regarding college stats and NFL success.

Basically 37 games started and 60% completion rate is the bench-mark for a successful NFL career. However this only holds for 1st and 2nd rounders. If you are drafted in the first two rounds, and had over 37 games started and a completion rate of over 60%, chances are you will be successful in the NFL. QBs drafted in the first two rounds who started less than 37 games are almost never successful. (There is a great graph on the above link)

(If you disagree with those numbers or don’t understand the math, you can take it up with the people on the site, I am bringing them up to enlighten the 2010 QB debate.)

The quarterbacks that are each in the top-5 for Scout, Bleacher Report, NFL Draft Scout (CBS sports) and Mel Kiper are Bradford, McCoy and Dan LeFevour. Jevan Snead and Tim Tebow made 3 of the 4 top-5s, Zac Robinson made 2, and Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike each made 1:
http://www.ninersnation.com/2009/4/24/851741/a-statistical-look-at-drafting-qbs

Looking at the stats for those players and comparing them against the benchmark of 37 games started and 60% completion, the initial conclusion is this: This is going to be the best QB draft in the last decade…by far.

Based on the metrics given in the first link, McCoy is looking to be the best QB prospect in the last decade. If Bradford stays in school his senior year, he would be a close second; although even when he does come out next year, he is an amazing prospect. Even LeFevour looks like one of the top 5 QBs of the past decade (maybe the second best after McCoy). I’m sure most of you will vehemently disagree with that last statement, but the stats are the stats and the corollary between those stats and success is pretty damn impressive.

As for the other players listed above, Zac Robinson and Tim Tebow could be successful QBs, but only if they are deemed good enough to be drafted in the first two rounds (that is weird, but makes sense if you think about it). Jevan Snead is shaping up to be the worst prospect and the others are somewhere in the middle, which means they probably won’t be successful.

Sorry buddy - McCoy is not even close to being one of the best QB prospects of the last decade... You wouldnt happen to be a longhorn fan would you???
Originally posted by nannite:
http://www.ninersnation.com/2009/4/24/851741/a-statistical-look-at-drafting-qbs
This is a rather dense look at what college statistics can be used to predict which QBs succeed in the NFL. David Lewen at Football Outsiders looked at all the QBs in the last decade or so and found some interesting corollaries regarding college stats and NFL success.

Basically 37 games started and 60% completion rate is the bench-mark for a successful NFL career. However this only holds for 1st and 2nd rounders. If you are drafted in the first two rounds, and had over 37 games started and a completion rate of over 60%, chances are you will be successful in the NFL. QBs drafted in the first two rounds who started less than 37 games are almost never successful. (There is a great graph on the above link)

(If you disagree with those numbers or don’t understand the math, you can take it up with the people on the site, I am bringing them up to enlighten the 2010 QB debate.)

The quarterbacks that are each in the top-5 for Scout, Bleacher Report, NFL Draft Scout (CBS sports) and Mel Kiper are Bradford, McCoy and Dan LeFevour. Jevan Snead and Tim Tebow made 3 of the 4 top-5s, Zac Robinson made 2, and Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike each made 1:
http://www.ninersnation.com/2009/4/24/851741/a-statistical-look-at-drafting-qbs

Looking at the stats for those players and comparing them against the benchmark of 37 games started and 60% completion, the initial conclusion is this: This is going to be the best QB draft in the last decade…by far.

Based on the metrics given in the first link, McCoy is looking to be the best QB prospect in the last decade. If Bradford stays in school his senior year, he would be a close second; although even when he does come out next year, he is an amazing prospect. Even LeFevour looks like one of the top 5 QBs of the past decade (maybe the second best after McCoy). I’m sure most of you will vehemently disagree with that last statement, but the stats are the stats and the corollary between those stats and success is pretty damn impressive.

As for the other players listed above, Zac Robinson and Tim Tebow could be successful QBs, but only if they are deemed good enough to be drafted in the first two rounds (that is weird, but makes sense if you think about it). Jevan Snead is shaping up to be the worst prospect and the others are somewhere in the middle, which means they probably won’t be successful.

And as we've seen - basing decisions only on success at the collegiate level is a flawed scouting method which brought us Alex Smith.
  • TX9R
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 8,225
Originally posted by nannite:
Originally posted by TexasNiner:
Originally posted by Norwalks_Best:
How about the QB from Ol Miss he is being mention as a good NFL prospect Sneed is his last name I believe?

Anyone have any info on the guy he did beat Florida last year>?

He actually could be the sleeper in all this. He was at Texas for a year or two before realizing he was never going to wrestle the job away from Colt, so he transfered.

Living in Austin, I watched him (Jevan Sneed) since he was recruited. Once he got installed as the full time guy at Ole Miss, he really looked sharp. A good year this year, and he could be in the Heisman running a very possibly a first round consideration or a 2nd round steal.

If he was not as good as McCoy at UT, then he has very little chance of being better than him in the NFL. Players don't mysteriously get better after sitting on the bench for years. Maybe a 3rd or 4th rounder would be good, but he is not worth a first day pick.

This could also be called the Booty/Sanchez corollary. In other words, Sanchez was a worse QB than Booty for his first two years at USC, than has one good year and is expected to be a star in the NFL?

Not at all a good comparison. Booty and Sanchez were competing for an open starting gig. Colt won his job as a freshman, barely, and went on to have one of the best seasons a freshman has ever had as a QB. From that point Snead knew he'd never see the field so he left.
Originally posted by TX9R:
Originally posted by nannite:
Originally posted by TexasNiner:
Originally posted by Norwalks_Best:
How about the QB from Ol Miss he is being mention as a good NFL prospect Sneed is his last name I believe?

Anyone have any info on the guy he did beat Florida last year>?

He actually could be the sleeper in all this. He was at Texas for a year or two before realizing he was never going to wrestle the job away from Colt, so he transfered.

Living in Austin, I watched him (Jevan Sneed) since he was recruited. Once he got installed as the full time guy at Ole Miss, he really looked sharp. A good year this year, and he could be in the Heisman running a very possibly a first round consideration or a 2nd round steal.

If he was not as good as McCoy at UT, then he has very little chance of being better than him in the NFL. Players don't mysteriously get better after sitting on the bench for years. Maybe a 3rd or 4th rounder would be good, but he is not worth a first day pick.

This could also be called the Booty/Sanchez corollary. In other words, Sanchez was a worse QB than Booty for his first two years at USC, than has one good year and is expected to be a star in the NFL?

Not at all a good comparison. Booty and Sanchez were competing for an open starting gig. Colt won his job as a freshman, barely, and went on to have one of the best seasons a freshman has ever had as a QB. From that point Snead knew he'd never see the field so he left.

And the main reason Colt won the job was because he had a head start on Snead. Colt graduated from HS a semester early, so he was on the team and practicing during the season (as Vince Young's backup) a year before Jevan got to UT.

The next summer, with Colt getting his first chance to compete for the starting job as a redshirt freshman, and with Jevan as a true freshman, Colt had the edge because he knew the playbook and he teammates.

But even from the first scrimmage practice that summer, Snead was impressive and it was no easy choice between the two talented young QBs. Still, Snead hung around in hope of getting his shot. But when Colt got hurt the following year, and even though Snead played well (but not great), it became obvious that the coaching staff had settled on Colt at that point because of his experience, even if skills were close to equal, Snead transferred because he knew he wouldn't start for at least a couple seasons.

When he did, he almost instantly became a starter (as soon as he was eligible) and has looked great ever since. Timing was the main reason he didn't win the job over McCoy. If you give any two young QBs with relatively equal talent a chance to win the job, but one has a year in the system and one was playing HS ball a couple months ago, who do you think would get the job?
McCoy just came out stating he loved watching Steve Young play!!!

McCoy should be a 49er next April for sure!!
  • krizay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 14,958
Quote:
2010: Draft McCoy!



SIR! yes SIR!

brady liked the niners crabtree likes the cowboys i think rice liked the cowboys as well

nm you are probaly right since he likes steve young im sure other teams are not going to draft him
Originally posted by Norwalks_Best:
McCoy just came out stating he loved watching Steve Young play!!!

McCoy should be a 49er next April for sure!!

is that all it takes to convince you we need to draft the guy?
  • TX9R
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 8,225
I love me some Colt, but again let's wait and see how this season plays out. If Colt stays healthy and doesn't regress then sign me up. But last year was the first time he didn't get hurt. His line should be improved so he has no reason not to improve, plus Shipley is back for a record 15th season at UT.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVELEDPq5MM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6Lo-6Z2aG4

Originally posted by LBSI9ers:
Originally posted by alwaysa49erfan:
Originally posted by GoFD74:
^^
2008 SEC Championship game highlights

Like any QB, some of his throws where the screen passes and dump-offs, but a few key passes were downfield, and he hit his guy in stride as you'll see.

Most importantly, when down near the goal line, he made very quick, hard and accurate throws to his WRs for TD passes in places where only they could catch the ball. Very impressive.

Dude, showing highlight clips from some of his games shows nothing but he has had some good plays throughout his career. Great. I'm guessing I can Youtube highlights from about 100 other QBs in CFB and have them look good. I don't think anyone is arguing that. The fact is Tebow hasn't been asked to do much. Maybe this year he will be asked to make some real NFL throws. He's great in Urban's system, perfect even. So was Alex Smith. Does the fact that he can run the spread option offense mean he will easily translate to the Pros as a great QB? I think not.

I couldn't agree more with this assessment.
TEBOW

favorite quote, "But it's a lesson: Superman in college can become Danny Wuerffel in the pros."


One of the stupidest things I've read on the board. Tebow has won the Heismann, two national championships, and was a finalist this year again. So no, not all QBs look as good as Tebow.

I think you missed the point.

Highlight clips show the best of someones performances. All qbs can look good in a highlight video because that's the point of a highlight vid.

Might want to reread your last post and you might change your mind about the "stupidest thing you've read on this board".