Horde running backs. It used to be, you ALWAYS drafted RBs with your first two picks. I still suggest you follow this strategy. There was a couple years where picking up a WR with your first couple picks became trend, and people still fall into this trap. Trust me on this: RBs are a sure bet. A starting RB on most NFL teams gets 15-25 carries per game, with 80-125 yards and 1 or 2 TDs per game, that adds up to 15-25 points per game. A WR is lucky to get 10 catches for 100 yards and a TD most games, which is about 15 points in standard scoring leagues. There are only 32 (actually less, since there are RB by committee teams) starting RBs in the NFL. There are, at a minimum, 64 starting WRs. It is more likely to pick up a starting caliber WR with your third or fourth round pick than it is to pick up a starting caliber RB. Additionally, as the season wears on, and injuries happen, it's easier to move a second or third tier RB from your bench who is poised to steal one of those 25 carry games than it is to play the waiver wire. RULE #1 - A top tier RB is more valuable than a top tier WR, a second tier RB is more valuable than a second tier WR, etc.
WRs. There are very few WRs worth a #1 or #2 round pick. Demaryius Thomas is one of those exceptions, but unless you're a late pick in a snake draft, don't bother. Think about it: Let's say you're pick 4 or 5, and the top three RBs are off the board. You're looking at CJ Anderson, Demarco Murray, or Demaryius Thomas, and a few other RBs who aren't going to put up LeVeon Bell numbers. You're tempted to grab Demaryius Thomas. Remember, you have to wait another 10 picks until your next pick. And the majority of those RBs will be snatched up before you get there. Now you've got a great WR, but you have no #1 RB. At best, you're playing two second tier RBs every week. Now, if you're pick 8, 9 or 10, and you have two picks right smack dab next to each other, it might be a good choice to grab that top tier WR, since you'll still be able to grab a #1 RB. Think about it: there are 64 starting WRs in the NFL. Each week, two from each team are fighting for touches. WRs are a gamble. There will be weeks when the Cardinals #3 WR puts up ungodly numbers, while Larry Fitzgerald gets held to 50 yards. Rule #2 - Unless you have near back to back picks, you're better off drafting RBs with your first two picks, then grabbing second tier starting WRs.
Recap - Picks 1 and 2, RB. Pick 3, WR.
At this point, there's a lot of numbers involved. On your draft board, there's usually a points predicted column. If you've followed my strategy, you're probably looking at a RB who will get you 200-225 (or 275-300 points, depending on scoring) points, another who will get you 180-200 (250-275), and a WR who will get you 150-175 (200-225) points.
You come to your next pick, and you're looking at RBs estimated to get you 175 points and WRs estimated to get you 150 points. The 4th and 5th picks are a matter of personal preference, but again, RBs are valued higher than WRs, and in most leagues, that flex spot should go to the safer bet, which is a RB (in PPR leagues, a good possession receiver can fill this spot). Pick #5, grab the opposite of what you grabbed in pick #4 - if you grabbed a RB with 4, grab a WR with 5.
But why not grab a QB here? Sure, you could grab one of the top tier QBs, but if you look at the numbers, there is a much bigger drop off in estimated points in WRs and RBs than there is in serviceable QBs. There are 16 QBs in the top half of the league, and usually less than 16 teams in your FF league -- meaning unless it's a Manning, Rodgers, or Brady, they're all going to put up good enough numbers to win your league. Romo usually puts up great fantasy numbers, and you can usually pick him up in round 7. Flacco went undrafted in my leagues this year. Ryan Tannehill was a top 10 QB in ESPN standard scoring last year. Get the picture? The difference between 2nd and 3rd tier RBs is greater than the top 16 QBs. Rule #3 - Picks 1-5 (and even #6) should go to WRs and RBs.
TEs. Don't do it. You're going to be tempted to draft a TE early. There are two TEs worth consideration in pick 4 or 5: Gronk and Graham. Otherwise, they all get similar numbers. Just make sure you grab a pass catching TE and not a blocking TE. And, view your TE as a WR3. So, if you grab a TE with pick 4, grab a RB with pick 5. But, if you look at the numbers, most TEs ranked 3-10 are projected at 700-900 yards with 5-6 TDs. Compare that with a flex RB, like Frank Gore, 1000 yds and 7-8 TDs, who you can still find around pick 6. Rule #4 - Unless there's a run on top 10 TEs in the first five picks, WAIT.
I'm going to start giving some general rules at this point, because after pick 7, you should have 3-4 RBs and 2-3 WRs, and maybe a TE or QB.
Rule #5 - DO NOT PICK TO FILL OUT YOUR STARTING ROSTER. I see so many people start drafting Defenses and Kickers just to fill out their starting rosters. Kickers and Defenses are basically inconsequential in FF. You can literally play the waiver wire every single week to fill out these positions. The same can basically be said for TEs. Refer to Rule #1. Horde RBs. Then Horde WRs. Your FINAL two picks should be: Defense, then Kicker. In that order.
Rule #6. DO NOT PICK 2 DEFENSES. OR TWO KICKERS. OR TWO TEs. Trust me. You can play the waiver wire for these spots. But you do not want to hope your waiver pickup of Knile Davis clears waivers when you're priority 8. It's better to have the guy sitting on your bench for mid season when Jamaal Charles takes a week off to heal up. It's even possible to get through half the season with only one QB on your active roster.
Rule #7. DRAFT FOR YOUR BYE WEEKS. You've got Eddie Lacy, and you're looking at drafting Matt Forte. Bad choice. They both have bye weeks at week 9. Now, you've got to have 2 serviceable RBs to replace them that week. Likewise, make sure your RB1 and WR1 don't share a bye week. You don't want to put yourself at a needless disadvantage by having to replace two of your primary point generators.
Rule #8. DON'T DRAFT PLAYERS ON THE SAME TEAM. You've got Aaron Rodgers, and you grab Jordy Nelson. Big points, right? What if Aaron Rodgers has a bad game? Now Jordy Nelson has a bad game by default. Plus, they share a bye week. Spread your players out over the whole NFL.
Rule #9. BE FLEXIBLE. If there's a run on a certain position (a run is 3 or 4 picks in a row on the same position), you need to decide whether you want to get in on that run. Let's say round 3 comes along and the three picks before you choose Gronk, Graham, Julius Thomas. Do you grab the next best TE on the list to make sure you can stay competitive at TE, or do you grab the next best RB on the board? TE 4-10 all hover around 100 points or so... you can get a RB3 for your flex spot who will get you near 150 points.
Rule #10. DON'T WASTE PICKS ON "SLEEPERS." Trust me. There will be plenty of "sleepers" on the waiver wire. It's almost always better to grab a #1 WR on a team that doesn't pass than it is to grab a #3 on a pass first team. Remember, the more WRs on the field, the less catches they all get.
Rule #11. PLAY THE WAIVER WIRE. Seasons are won and lost by playing the waiver wire. You need to keep up to date with league news and injuries. If Jamaal Charles goes down, you'd better be on the waiver wire the same day putting in a pickup, regardless of your priority. Likewise, if the teams in your league need RBs, and you've got an early waiver priority, pick up that RB on the wire. They can't use him if you've got him, and your worst RB - the guy you drop - can't be picked up immediately, so they all have to fight for him. Also, around weeks 4-7, people will start dropping RB3s and WR2s when they panic about their draft. Weeks 1-4 are slow weeks for the NFL. Teams are getting into the swing of things. Low numbers early in the season can turn into big numbers fast. Watch the waiver wire.
Finally, Rule #12. IF YOU'RE GOING TO MAKE A TRADE, OVERVALUE YOUR PLAYERS AND UNDERVALUE THEIRS. If you've followed my strategy, your team is filled to the brim with RBs and they don't have any. Your players are already valued higher than theirs. If Jamaal Charles is out for 4 weeks, and Knile Davis just posted a great game in week 2 of him starting, TRADE KNILE DAVIS. Somebody needs him, and you can get great value a player who won't be on your starting roster in a couple weeks by trading for a serviceable WR2/borderline WR1.
I hope this post has given you an insight into the depth of Fantasy Football. The draft is the most important part of your league, and the waiver wire becomes increasingly more important as the season wears on. If you follow these tips, you'll make the championship game just about every year.
[ Edited by jedediahyork on Aug 20, 2015 at 12:51 AM ]