Originally posted by Niners99:
lol Kap in the 1st might be justified by the years end from the production standpoint, but value wise its horrible. I waited until round 4 to take him, and everyone made fun of me for being a Niner homer. I knew he wouldnt make it back to me in the 5th, so I reached a little.
Anything in the first 3 rounds is hilarious. He was going to fall to the 4th-6th round in most every draft.
See that's the problem and the idiotic notion that keeps people thinking that taking Kaep in the 1st was a good idea. You can't just look at the overall production and say that makes him worth the pick...
Even if he's the best player in fantasy, if there are other great QBs that score lots of points as well, then his value is greatly diminished. The reason why saavy fantasy veterans go after RBs early is because of history. Bell cow running backs are NOT a norm anymore and are thus, very rare. Meanwhile, Quarterbacks always score lots of points. In just about every format last year, the 15th ranked QB (Carson Palmer), was also the 18th highest scorer overall. Only Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson were in the Top 15 Overall who didn't play QB and only Doug Martin outscore Palmer. Conversely, only 11 RBs rank in the Top 50 in total points, compared to 15 WR and 24 QBs. The talent begins a steep decline at RB from there...
Let's say for instance that you pick Kaep in the 1st round and he scores the most points in fantasy. I don't think it's outrageous to say that guys like RGIII and Michael Vick have outside chances of being Top 5 and are near locks to be Top 10 QBs and both had ADPs in the 5th rounds and later. Those guys are probably running combos like Doug Martin and Matt Forte out there everyday, while the guy that took Kapernick in the 1st is probably sitting on Steven Ridley and Rashard Mendenhall. I'll take the former ANY day.
[ Edited by KaeptainCrush on Sep 12, 2013 at 3:44 PM ]