ninerlifer, rated by footballguys.com
QB: Eli Manning, Andrew Luck RB: Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Donald Brown, Kendall Hunter, Ronnie Brown WR: Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Malcom Floyd, Denarius Moore, Alshon Jeffery, Dexter McCluster TE: Vernon Davis, Greg Olsen PK: Matt Prater TD: New York Jets
In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.
Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Cam Newton could be had very cheap in August and September, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2010 it was Michael Vick and Josh Freeman; in 2009 it was Brett Favre; in 2008, the same could be said of players like Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Matt Cassel. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.
So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.
Players we particularly like on this team include Julio Jones, Donald Brown, Malcom Floyd, Denarius Moore, Greg Olsen, and Alshon Jeffery. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line: With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs. With good inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs. With average inseason management, we think you have a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 5 of 2010:
Matt Forte vs. CAR: 188 combined yards, 2 TD Malcom Floyd vs. OAK: 213 receiving yards, 1 TD Chris Johnson vs. DAL: 132 combined yards, 2 TD Eli Manning vs. HOU: 297 passing yards, 3 TD Vernon Davis vs. PHI: 104 receiving yards, 1 TD
We have Eli Manning rated #9 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Andrew Luck (ranked #19 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Manning turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.
Incidentally, Luck has what we project as a good matchup (NE) during Manning's bye.
Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Matt Forte as a second running back. We figure them at a combined 2.5 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Chris Johnson ranked at #5 and Forte ranked at #6.
Your bench also looks good. We love Donald Brown as a third running back. Kendall Hunter should be adequate at RB4.
We're not sure that Ronnie Brown adds much, as you're already strong at the position and we aren't convinced he's roster-worthy in this league anyway.
Nice work here. We like both your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 1.4 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Julio Jones is our #3 ranked receiver, and we have Dez Bryant at #14.
Your bench also looks good. Malcom Floyd should serve as a very solid third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Likewise, Denarius Moore should be excellent at WR4. Alshon Jeffery should serve as a very solid fifth receiver.
We're not sure that Dexter McCluster adds much, as you're already strong at the position and we aren't convinced he's roster-worthy in this league anyway.
Vernon Davis should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked fifth overall at the position. Greg Olsen is a nice backup.
Matt Prater, our 13th ranked kicker, is below average but probably adequate.
The Jets are probably not a difference-maker at defense, but they should be OK.
When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Jets', along with the combined schedule that each would create:
Jets + Seahawks = ARI | PIT | MIA | STL | CAR | IND | NE | DET | MIN | NYJ | STL | MIA | ARI | ARI | BUF | SD Jets + Cardinals = SEA | PIT | PHI | MIA | STL | IND | MIN | MIA | GB | SEA | STL | STL | NYJ | SEA | DET | CHI Jets + Bills = NYJ | PIT | MIA | NE | HOU | ARI | TEN | MIA | HOU | SEA | STL | IND | ARI | STL | SEA | SD